Measuring Persistence of the World Population: A Fractional Integration Approach
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Caporale, Guglielmo Maria and Infante, Juan and Rio, Marta del and Gil-Alana, Luis A., Measuring Persistence of the World Population: A Fractional Integration Approach (2023). CESifo Working Paper No. 10286, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4368215 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4368215
This paper uses fractional integration methods to measure the degree of persistence in historical annual data on the world population over the period 1800-2016. The analysis is carried out for the original series, and also for its log transformation and its growth rate. The results indicate that the series considered are highly persistent; in particular, the estimated values of the fractional diffencing parameter are above 1, which implies that shocks have permanent effects. Endogenous break tes ...